An annotated shelf

# HPV Vaccination and the Risk of Invasive Cervical Cancer **Authors:** Jiayao Lei et al. (Swedish registry study) **Year:** 2020 **Where:** *New England Journal of Medicine*, 383, 1340–1348. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1917338 ## What it is A nationwide Swedish registry cohort of 1,672,983 girls/women aged 10–30 followed 2006–2017, showing that quadrivalent HPV vaccination was associated with a substantially lower risk of **invasive cervical cancer** — not just precancerous lesions. The reduction was larger for those vaccinated before age 17 (~88%) than at 17–30 (~53%). ## Why it matters / what Log

# Effect of Colonoscopy Screening on Risks of Colorectal Cancer and Related Death (the NordICC Trial) **Authors:** Michael Bretthauer et al. / the NordICC Study Group **Year:** 2022 **Where:** *New England Journal of Medicine*, 387, 1547–1556. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2208375 ## What it is The first large randomized trial of invitation to a single screening colonoscopy: 84,585 adults aged 55–64 in Poland, Norway, and Sweden randomized 1:2 to invitation vs. usual care, followed ~10 years. It found a reduced risk of colorectal cancer diagnosis but **no statistically significant reduction in colorect

# Global Cancer Statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries **Authors:** Hyuna Sung, Jacques Ferlay, Rebecca L. Siegel, Mathieu Laversanne, Isabelle Soerjomataram, Ahmedin Jemal, Freddie Bray **Year:** 2021 **Where:** *CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians*, 71(3), 209–249. DOI: 10.3322/caac.21660 ## What it is The IARC/GLOBOCAN global snapshot of the cancer burden: an estimated 19.3 million new cases and ~10.0 million deaths in 2020, with female breast cancer surpassing lung as the most commonly diagnosed cancer and lung remaining t

# Smoking and Carcinoma of the Lung **Authors:** Richard Doll, Austin Bradford Hill **Year:** 1950 **Where:** *British Medical Journal*, September 30, 1950 ## What it is A landmark hospital-based case-control study (~1,465 male lung-cancer cases matched to ~1,465 controls across 20 London hospitals) that found a strong dose-response association between cigarette smoking and lung cancer. ## Why it matters / what Logan took from it One of the founding studies of modern chronic-disease epidemiology and of cancer prevention as a science. Early-career, the lesson is how a well-designed observati

# Quadrivalent Vaccine against Human Papillomavirus to Prevent High-Grade Cervical Lesions **Author:** The FUTURE II Study Group **Year:** 2007 **Where:** *New England Journal of Medicine*, 356(19), 1915–1927. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa061741 ## What it is A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in 12,167 women aged 15–26 testing the quadrivalent (HPV 6/11/16/18) vaccine against high-grade cervical lesions (CIN 2/3, adenocarcinoma in situ, or cervical cancer related to HPV-16/18). In the per-protocol susceptible population, vaccine efficacy was ~100% for the primary endpoints. ## Why

# Causal Inference: What If **Authors:** Miguel A. Hernán, James M. Robins **Year:** 2020 (Boca Raton: Chapman & Hall/CRC); the full PDF is updated regularly and available free from the authors **Where:** https://miguelhernan.org/whatifbook ## What it is A modern, freely available textbook on causal inference from observational and experimental data — potential outcomes, confounding, the g-methods (IP weighting, g-formula, g-estimation), instrumental variables, and target-trial thinking. ## Why it matters / what Logan took from it This is the bridge between "associations" and the question p

# "The Environment and Disease: Association or Causation?" **Author:** Austin Bradford Hill **Year:** 1965 **Where:** *Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine*, 58, 295–300 ## What it is The presidential address in which Hill laid out the nine considerations (strength, consistency, specificity, temporality, biological gradient, plausibility, coherence, experiment, analogy) now known as the **Bradford Hill criteria** for moving from statistical association toward a judgment of causation. ## Why it matters / what Logan took from it This is the field's touchstone for the difference betwee

# Unequal Treatment: Confronting Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Health Care **Editors:** Brian D. Smedley, Adrienne Y. Stith, Alan R. Nelson (eds.); Institute of Medicine (Committee on Understanding and Eliminating Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Health Care) **Year:** 2003 **Where:** Washington, DC: National Academies Press (Institute of Medicine) ## What it is The landmark IOM consensus report documenting that racial and ethnic minorities receive lower-quality health care even after accounting for access and socioeconomic differences, and tracing contributors across health systems, prov

# Social Conditions as Fundamental Causes of Disease **Authors:** Bruce G. Link, Jo C. Phelan **Year:** 1995 **Where:** *Journal of Health and Social Behavior*, 1995, vol. 36 (Extra/Special Issue), pp. 80–94. ## What it is The paper that introduced **fundamental cause theory**: socioeconomic status stays linked to mortality across eras and diseases because SES confers flexible resources (money, knowledge, power, prestige, beneficial social connections) that protect health *whatever* the proximate mechanisms happen to be. ## Why it matters / what Logan took from it A foundational health-equi

# Modern Epidemiology **Authors:** Kenneth J. Rothman, Sander Greenland, Timothy L. Lash (and, for the 4th ed., Tyler J. VanderWeele & Sebastien Haneuse) **Years/editions:** 3rd edition, 2008 (Lippincott Williams & Wilkins); 4th edition, 2021 (Wolters Kluwer; authors listed as Lash, VanderWeele, Haneuse, Rothman) ## What it is The standard graduate-level reference text on epidemiologic theory and methods — study design, measures of effect, bias, confounding, interaction, and analysis. ## Why it matters / what Logan took from it This is the book PhD epidemiology training is built around. Ear